AI skeptic and cognitive scientist Gary Marcus is back with another grim prediction for OpenAI and Anthropic. This time, he says the two companies are "almost certainly doomed" without government intervention. And if they can't turn a profit, taxpayers shouldn't foot the bill.
Marcus has been calling for a generative AI bubble burst since 2024, but his timing has been off so far. Now he's pointing to new pressures: the rise of Chinese models, companies tightening their token budgets, and the sheer impossibility of justifying trillion-dollar valuations with current earnings.
His fear isn't baseless. OpenAI posted $5.7 billion in revenue for the first quarter but burned through $3.7 billion in cash. Meanwhile, Chinese models like Kimi K3 are nipping at the heels of top US closed-source models at a fraction of the price.
https://twitter.com/garymarcus/status/2078987251674186107?s=46