Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch shared that as of August 22nd, open source models now account for 62% of AI Gateway token traffic. On June 24th, that number was just 28.4% — more than double in two months. Closed models, meanwhile, dropped from 71.6% to 38% over the same stretch.
Vercel AI Gateway measures actual model calls on Vercel's own platform, so it's not a proxy for the entire AI market.
But AI usage on Vercel is exploding too. Total token volume jumped 59% month over month in July, with open source models making up more than a third of that traffic. DeepSeek also overtook Google to become the second largest model provider by token consumption.
Combined token volume from OpenAI and Anthropic is accelerating as well.
Yet the money is still going to closed models. In July, open-weight models handled about 36% of tokens but just 8.6% of spending. Anthropic used roughly 30% of tokens and captured 65.1% of spend.
In the future, closed frontier models might only account for 15% to 25% of tokens — while walking away with 60% to 90% of the economic value.
See the full leaderboard at Vercel.