Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, says Kimi K3 could be a turning point for the AI industry. It's bad news for OpenAI and Anthropic, but good for almost everyone else.
His reasoning: if frontier models remain locked in a two- or three-lab monopoly for too long, those companies will scoop up most of the profits and expand into chips, cloud computing, and software layers.
K3 injects competition into the model layer. As model margins get squeezed, more value flows to power, chips, data centers, cloud services, and software companies.
But K3 isn't cheap enough on tokens yet. Artificial Analysis tests show it costs about $0.94 per task, which is higher than GPT-5.6 Terra's $0.55 but slightly lower than GPT-5.6 Sol's $1.04.
Baker believes the real industry inflection point will require an equally powerful but cheaper open model. OpenAI and Anthropic could still hold their lead through products, toolchains, and internal models.
https://twitter.com/gavinsbaker/status/2078110934740980193?s=46