OSS Capital founding partner Joseph Jacks has a bold prediction: Anthropic's annualized revenue will surpass Alphabet by mid-2028, crossing at around $575 billion. The growth curve he envisions is breathtakingly steep: $100 billion by end of 2026, $340 billion in 2027, and $850 billion in 2028.
Jacks says this is actually his "conservative downward revision." For context, Anthropic's revenue already tripled in the first four months of this year (from $9 billion to $30 billion annualized). Last quarter, Google's Gemini consumption grew just 60% — while Anthropic's exploded 10x.
https://twitter.com/JosephJacks_/status/2052569028397515063
He says three structural forces underpin this explosion:
- Deep enterprise lock-in: The number of customers paying over $1 million annually doubled to 1,000 in under two months. Once a business integrates Anthropic's agent systems, switching costs become prohibitively high.
- Code as a wedge: Claude Code is packing underlying agent and protocol capabilities directly into the daily operations of Fortune 2000 companies.
- Compute supply catches up: With Google's existing capacity, plus major compute deals with Broadcom and SpaceX, the capacity bottleneck has finally loosened.
To the traditional objection that "growth inevitably slows past $100 billion," Jacks argues you can't apply old rules to new paradigms. AWS and Meta sell tools — their ceiling is the $800 billion enterprise software market. Anthropic sells "brainpower," targeting the $50 trillion global labor market. With a market two orders of magnitude larger, the old deceleration rules no longer apply.
But there's a growing debate over the $30 billion annualized revenue figure that serves as the baseline for Jacks' prediction. OpenAI's chief revenue officer has questioned whether Anthropic inflates its numbers by counting cloud provider distributions as gross revenue. And comparing a startup's annualized run rate to a public company's actual reported revenue is an apples-to-oranges exercise.