The Shanghai Futures Exchange is planning to launch futures contracts tied to AI token consumption — the smallest unit of data processed by an AI model. It's a direct financial instrument for hedging compute and inference costs, and a clear signal that Beijing intends to compete with the US on AI financial infrastructure.
Unlike the GPU compute rental futures being developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange, Shanghai's token futures would be pegged to the volume of tokens used for pricing AI services. The goal is to give the entire AI industry a new tool to manage the volatile costs of compute and inference.
The move comes as China's token consumption has exploded. Official data shows daily token usage has skyrocketed 1,000-fold since early 2024, surpassing 140 trillion by March 2026. At the same time, compute shortages have worsened, forcing several domestic large-model AI companies to implement access quotas for users. To accelerate the construction of a spot and derivatives market for compute, a state-run commodity index firm released multiple compute indices in December 2025, which could serve as underlying benchmarks for futures contracts.
Experts say launching token futures early is crucial for China to maintain financial pricing power in the semiconductor and AI competition. Shao Yilei, dean of the Shanghai AI Finance Institute at East China Normal University, argues that the US and China are the only two countries capable of mass-producing AI at scale, and controlling token pricing will play a key role in bilateral competition.
While some brokerages predict it could take three to five years for Chinese compute futures to materialize — and significant obstacles like market fragmentation remain — the early preparation for token futures has already signaled China's ambition to build a sovereign AI financial ecosystem.