Two weeks ago, OpenAI announced it had renegotiated its partnership with Microsoft — and now The Information has the exclusive financial details. The cap on revenue sharing is locked at $38 billion. At current growth rates, OpenAI expects to hit that ceiling by 2028. Compared to the previous unlimited 20% revenue split, the new deal saves OpenAI roughly $97 billion over the long run.
The short-term price? A much tighter cash squeeze. The old arrangement let OpenAI defer some payments to 2032; that privilege is gone. Based on this year's projected $30 billion in revenue, OpenAI now owes Microsoft about $6 billion in full — up from the roughly $4 billion previously expected. As a result, the company's cash burn estimates for this year and next have jumped to around $27 billion and $63 billion, respectively.
Microsoft, meanwhile, gave up hundreds of billions in potential upside in exchange for certainty around the AGI risk. The original contract stipulated that if OpenAI ever declared it had achieved AGI, Microsoft's commercialization rights would be cut off. Under the new terms, Microsoft keeps collecting its share of revenue through 2030 no matter when AGI arrives, and holds resale rights to OpenAI's technology until 2032.